![]() We cannot turn knowledge into a spectator sport. We are not allowed to make claims without empirical proof. For instance, we are not allowed to take risks that will not hurt us personally if things go south. Such independent, free-range thinking comes with great scrutiny, and part of Taleb’s approach includes a strict code of ethics to which he holds himself and others. He might say that he specializes in the ideas that count the most. He popularized the phrase “Black Swan” to represent the big events that have never happened and cannot be predicted, but still need our attention. Taleb’s main thrust has been understanding the application of what statisticians call “fat tails” - rare events at the edges of a statistical distribution that often carry the greatest consequences, yet are also the most unpredictable. Why forecasting is a waste of time, but being prepared for anything is not. Why it’s better not to plan out your vacations. ![]() How to go for “long” volatility (in finance parlance). They were meditations on the nature of uncertainty and how we live in a world we don’t fully understand. While he had success taking an unusual approach to derivatives trading, smack in the middle of his finance career Taleb began producing books of personal essays in his free time. With his childhood in Lebanon interrupted by the Lebanese Civil War, Taleb is a serious autodidact who claims to have spent many months simply reading for 60 hours per week. These contradictions are at the heart of a unique mind. He is exquisitely credentialed, with a Wharton MBA and a PhD from the University of Paris, yet believes that academia produces insights that are far removed from the realities of the world, and that credentials are largely for show. Yet he publicly disdains the models promoted by the finance industry. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, born in Lebanon, started his career as a derivatives trader on Wall Street. “Probability is a liberal art it is a child of skepticism, not a tool for people with calculators on their belts to satisfy their desire to produce fancy calculations and certainties.” Nassim Taleb is the original, idiosyncratic mind behind Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, and Antifragile, a bestselling series of books on the nature of complexity, randomness, and a world where rare events dominate the landscape.
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